Red Flags in the Real Estate Market
The real estate market is similar to the stock market—it’s a roller coaster. Prices fluctuate, demand is seasonal, and a lot of money can be made by those who know how to play the game.
Tracking the trends and market conditions of your local area is key to anticipating opportunities and threats in the real estate market. Here are some of the biggest factors to look for to help you make smart, informed decisions, whether buying or selling a home.
Months of Supply, or Days on Market (DOM), determines whether the market favors buyers or sellers. As the phrase implies, months of supply indicates the average number of months it takes for a house to sell. Greater than 6 months of supply is considered a buyer’s market, less than 4 months is considered a seller’s market, and anywhere between the two is considered a balanced market.
Number of Closed Sales is a great way to get a feel of how “hot” the market is. Following the trend for closed sales is helpful for understanding the seasonality of your local market. Summer months are typically much busier than winter months.
Mortgage Rates is a major factor in determining buyer demand. The rule of thumb is that as rates go up, buyer demand goes down. In particular, if mortgage rates and housing prices outpace income levels (which is a national trend today), buyer demand will likely decline as home affordability becomes an issue. The Fed funds rate is also an indicator for which direction mortgage rates will go, and the Federal Reserve normally announces what the Fed funds rate will be in the coming years.
New Construction is a big player (especially today) in determining price levels and available inventory. Currently, much of the nation (including here in Bozeman, Montana) is experiencing a housing shortage, causing prices to rise and intense competition among homebuyers. The construction industry is still recovering from the housing crisis, and is struggling to keep up with demand as millennials enter their prime home buying years.
Local Development is vital to uncover opportunity. Much like a business, real estate investment is all about location, location, location. Development such as new roads, schools, and shopping centers are all signs that property values may increase. A growing community (like Bozeman, Montana) can be very profitable you invest early.
Housing Affordability in city limits is an indicator for future development in outlying areas. Much like what we’re experiencing here in Bozeman, as properties in town become limited and overpriced, you can expect the outer fringes to soon be in high demand.
Staying informed with these trends will help equip you with the best decisions going into the real estate market. Anticipating which direction the market will turn will not only uncover investment opportunity, but also help insulate you from any threats (like the recent housing crisis).
For exclusive information and statistics in your local market, you can contact a Realtor® for the most recent market conditions. Subscribe to our newsletter, and once a month, we’ll send you local market reports and news updates for the Bozeman, Montana area.